Metro Vancouver Housing Market 2024 – A Measured Cooldown with Cautionary Outlook

The Metro Vancouver housing market in 2024 displayed a tempered performance, characterized by subdued purchase and sales activity. While transactions slightly outpaced those of 2023, the market remained a shadow of its former self during the feverish years of 2016, 2017, and 2021. This muted momentum reflects broader challenges that may shape the region’s housing outlook through 2026.

Cool Detached House Market

The detached house market, long a bellwether of Metro Vancouver’s housing landscape, experienced modest gains in the latter part of the year. However, the uptick was insufficient to spark significant excitement.

Benchmark prices for detached homes hover near $2 million, underscoring their luxury status. The segment’s share of total purchases has steadily declined from 37% in 2016 to 29% in 2024, signalling an affordability squeeze and a demographic trend for baby boomers to “age in place” rather than downsize in retirement.

Motivated sellers have likely played a pivotal role in boosting sales in the autumn. For instance, East Vancouver’s median house price tumbled from $2.1 million in June to under $1.9 million by December—a striking 10% drop.

With eight months of supply on hand, the market remains balanced but precariously close to tipping into a seller’s market.

Active listings ended the year at their highest level since 2020, a trend that could further downward pressure prices.

Condo Apartments Largely Mirroring Detached Trends

Condo apartments have largely mirrored the detached market’s trajectory, with demand improving modestly in the final quarter of 2024 compared to prior years. Yet, like their detached counterparts, they fell far short of the frenzy witnessed in 2021.

Listings have accumulated steadily, and prices have trended gently downward throughout the year.

With 5.5 months of supply, this market remains balanced. Rising inventories and softening prices signal waning investor confidence.

Economic Headwinds and Policy Risks

A confluence of economic and policy challenges clouds the outlook for Metro Vancouver’s housing market:

Surging Supply

Record construction levels promise to add significant housing inventory over the next two years. This influx could shift the market balance decisively toward buyers, particularly if demand fails to keep pace.

Population Growth Adjustments

Federal changes to immigration targets are poised to dampen population growth. The resulting decline in international students and permanent residents may weaken housing demand, particularly in the rental market.

Stagnant Employment

Full-time employment growth has stalled, an ominous sign for a market where steady incomes underpin housing demand. This stagnation—now a year-long trend—casts doubt on the ability of local buyers to sustain price levels.

Falling Rents

Rent rates have declined over 10% in the past year, a precursor to potentially softer buy-to-rent investment activity. Risk-averse investors may choose to wait out the market turbulence, further sapping demand.

Muted Upside Risks

The few positive forces at play include stabilizing mortgage rates, which have retreated from their recent peaks. However, borrowing costs remain elevated relative to the pre-2022 era, tempering their impact.

Moreover, Vancouver’s unique profile—a world-class living environment without a dominant industry cluster—raises questions about its long-term economic resilience. Comparatively low local incomes juxtaposed against stratospheric property valuations suggest the market may have overshot during the post-pandemic boom.

A Measured Perspective

While the data advises caution for speculative investors, it does not preclude buyers seeking a primary residence. Vancouver remains a desirable choice for those who prioritize lifestyle over investment returns. Yet, potential purchasers should temper their expectations: the $2 million ceiling for detached homes may persist until local incomes rise or external economic conditions improve.

The road ahead for Metro Vancouver’s housing market is unlikely to be smooth. As policymakers, developers, and residents navigate these uncharted waters, the city must grapple with the dual challenges of affordability and sustainability in a landscape defined as much by its constraints as its opportunities.