Metro Calgary
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Calgary home values have shown steady growth, with recent trends indicating a gradual cooling in price increases.

• While the past few years have strongly favoured sellers, shifting inventory levels are beginning to balance conditions, giving buyers more negotiating power.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Calgary as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to historic lows, constraining affordability, but recent stabilization has provided some relief for buyers.

• Economic uncertainty persists due to shifting immigration policies, trade wars, and fluctuations in interest rates. All factors that influence future market dynamics.

This article covers:

1. What is the current state of the property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the current state of the Calgary property market?

Overview of the Calgary Property Market

Metro Calgary has a population of roughly 1.7 million and was ranked 54th among the world’s 100 best cities by Resonance Research.

Calgary was ranked the fifth most livable city in the world and the most livable city in North America in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual list of the world’s most livable cities.

Calgary is often praised for its unique blend of big-city amenities and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere. Here are some factors that make it an attractive city to live in:

1. Proximity to Nature: Calgary's location at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains is a major draw. Residents enjoy easy access to breathtaking natural landscapes, perfect for hiking, skiing, camping, and other outdoor activities. Banff National Park, a world-renowned natural wonder, is just a short drive away.

2. High Quality of Life: Calgary consistently ranks high in global livability surveys. This is due to factors like low crime rates, clean air and water, excellent healthcare, and a well-developed infrastructure. The city also has a strong sense of community and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere.

3. Affordable Housing: Compared to other major Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary offers more affordable housing options, whether you're looking to buy or rent. This makes it an attractive choice for families and young professionals seeking a good balance between cost of living and quality of life.

4. Sunny Weather and Chinooks: Calgary is one of the sunniest major cities in Canada, with over 300 days of sunshine per year. It also experiences unique weather phenomena called Chinooks, warm, dry winds that can raise temperatures significantly in the winter, providing a welcome respite from the cold.

5. Lower Taxes: Compared to many other Canadian cities, Calgary residents benefit from lower property taxes, no property transfer taxes, and no provincial sales tax. This can result in significant savings.

Overall, Calgary is an excellent place for young families. It offers a high quality of life, affordability, and low taxes.

While both the detached house and apartment markets in Calgary remain in seller's territory, there's a noticeable trend of increasing inventory, which is providing buyers with more options.

Metro Calgary Detached House Prices

The detached house market remains a seller's market, but conditions are shifting in favour of buyers. While sellers still hold the upper hand in negotiations, inventory levels have improved significantly compared to last year, giving buyers more options.

Demand has softened, while the supply of available homes has risen substantially. This shift has led to a more balanced environment, reducing some of the intense competition seen in previous years. Prices continue to show modest growth, reflecting sustained seller advantage, but the rate of increase has slowed.

For buyers, this means more opportunities to negotiate and less pressure to make rushed decisions. Sellers, while still in a strong position, may need to adjust expectations as the market evolves.

Prices are rising and supply is tight, but there’s more supply than in the previous four years, for this time of year.

Demand is weakening, perhaps because of he trade war, and active listings are beginning to accumulate.

Metro Calgary New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes have plateaued. Based on economic fundamentals, they might have hit a ceiling.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

New home construction is near record levels as developers sprint to bring new housing stock to the market. Property development is a fantastic business in Calgary, while developers struggle to sell new projects in Vancouver and Toronto.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Calgary is at moderate risk of a market correction.

Metro Calgary Condo Apartment Prices

The condo apartment segment remains a seller's market, but trends indicate a gradual shift toward a more balanced market, favouring buyers. Inventory levels have climbed, providing more options for those entering the market.

Demand has softened, while the number of active listings has expanded significantly. Prices continue to edge upward, but the slower pace suggests a cooling in competition.

Buyers may find better opportunities with less urgency, while sellers should stay aware of the growing inventory to position their properties effectively.

With more people working from home, we expect developers to begin marketing larger (i.e., 2—and 3-bedroom apartments) to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5-bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Calgary Townhouse Prices

Townhouses are also in a seller's market, but like detached homes, the trend is moving toward buyers. Inventory levels have risen sharply, offering buyers a much wider selection than in previous years.

Demand has declined noticeably, while the number of available listings has surged. This shift suggests buyers may have more leverage in negotiations, though sellers still maintain pricing power for now.

For those considering a townhouse purchase, the increased supply means more choices and potentially better terms. Sellers should remain mindful of changing conditions to price competitively.

Very affordable for first-time homebuyers

Even in the current market conditions, a condo is well within reach for most Calgarians. A homebuyer household earning $99,000 (the median Metro Calgary household before-tax income) can get a $425,000 mortgage. That’s more than enough to buy a benchmark condo, but a house purchase is moving out of reach for most locals.

What about the rest of the West?

Read the Edmonton Home Price Forecast, Vancouver Home Price Forecast Forecast, and Okanagan Valley Home Price Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Calgary prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Canada’s trade wars with China and the United States lead to a recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review several forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic predictions, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We’ve written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast

3. Is it a good time to sell your Calgary property?

From a seller’s perspective, the market is favourable – it’s a seller’s market. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year. If you plan to sell, now may be a better time to sell later, particularly because a U.S. trade war could derail the market.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller Guide

4. Is this a good time to buy a Calgary home?

Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn. If you wait, home values might be higher, but your mortgage will likely be cheaper.

If you are considering buying, drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don’t bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Are you Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Metro Vancouver housing prices may lower amid economic uncertainty, experts say (CBC | May 09)

• Calgary's hot house-flipping market is cooling off, real estate insiders say (CBC | May 09)

• Posthaste: Just when you thought Toronto's condo market couldn't get any worse … (Financial Post | May 08)

• Mortgage rates at 3% or lower the magic number to reignite Canada's housing market (Financial Post | May 08)

• As Canadians ditch U.S. real estate, some predict a flood north (Financial Post | May 07)

• Fixed rates are creeping up—and variable-rate discounts are shrinking too (Canadian Mortgage Trends | May 02)

• Is it time for Canada to relax restrictions on foreign buyers and investment in real estate? (Vancouver Sun | Apr 22)

• Renewing your mortgage? What Bank of Canada’s rate hold means for you (Global News | Apr 17)

• Tariff turmoil means Canada’s housing market is ‘treading water at best’ (Global News | Apr 15)

• This condo investor is being sued for $860,000 for failing to close. He’s one of dozens facing lawsuits as default rates soar (The Toronto Star | Apr 03)

• Calgary home sales dip amid economic uncertainty from tariffs, as supply grows: board (BNN Bloomberg | Apr 01)

• Calgary housing sales dip in March amid tariff uncertainty (CTV News | Apr 01)

• Canada’s housing market retreats amid trade war (RBC Thought Leadership | Mar 17)

• CREA reports home sales fell in February amid tariff uncertainty (City News | Mar 17)

• Mortgage payment shock risk surges as renewals near (MPA | Mar 17)

• Home prices continue to rise in Calgary despite more on the market (MSN | Mar 15)

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Why Canada's economy – and real estate industry – thrive on dirty money (MPA | Mar 13)

• Canadian housing markets struggle as U.S. trade woes mount (REM | Mar 12)

• Mortgage broker sees Ontario home prices ‘grinding down’ amid trade war (BNN Bloomberg | Mar 12)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Posthaste: Vancouver's housing market seen on firmer footing than Toronto's heading into tariff turbulence (Financial Post | Mar 11)

• Underbidding in Calgary reached highest level in Q4: Wahi (REM | Feb 26)

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