Calgary Real Estate Market Update - March 2025
Economic Uncertainty Weighs on Housing Market
Ongoing economic uncertainty, driven by tariff threats, has dampened consumer confidence and slowed housing activity in Calgary this March. Sales declined by 19% year-over-year, with all property types experiencing reduced transaction volumes. Condo apartments were hit hardest, posting the steepest declines in sales.
“It is not a surprise to see a pullback in sales given the uncertainty,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.
While demand has eased, active listings have increased, and inventory levels have risen, leading to a more balanced market. Although conditions still lean slightly in favor of sellers, this is a notable shift from the strong seller’s markets of 2022-2024, which often left buyers at a disadvantage. Limited supply across property types and price ranges continues to support prices, though the balance between buyers and sellers is now more even.
Demand Trends
Despite the slowdown in March, year-to-date purchase activity remains strong, aligning with 2021, 2023, and 2025 trends. While demand is weaker than in 2022 and 2024, it surpasses levels seen in the five years preceding 2021. Key demand drivers include:
Population Growth: Alberta continues to lead Canada in population growth, though at a slightly slower pace than the previous two years. In contrast, BC and Ontario have seen sharp slowdowns in population increases.
Employment Strength: Full-time employment in Alberta remains on an upward trajectory, though at a more modest rate than in previous years.
Mortgage Rates: Interest rates have dropped to 4.4%, providing buyers with more purchasing power compared to 2023. However, rates remain significantly higher than pandemic-era lows, limiting affordability.
Consumer Confidence: Confidence in real estate price growth has weakened, with less than 50% of Canadians expecting home values to rise next year.
Trade War Concerns: While a potential U.S. trade war may have discouraged some buyers this spring, overall demand remains resilient, making it unclear how much impact tariffs have had on the market.
Supply Trends
New Construction: Housing starts continue at a brisk pace, exceeding the past three years. The number of units under construction is approaching the record levels set in 2024, ensuring a strong pipeline of new supply.
Active Listings: More homeowners are choosing to sell, continuing a trend that began in 2024 before trade war concerns emerged. This could be driven by investors capitalizing on gains or baby boomers selling for retirement. The increased supply of existing homes has helped ease previous market tightness.
Market Outlook
The outlook for Calgary and Alberta remains uncertain. While supply and demand factors suggest a more balanced market, external risks loom large. A prolonged U.S. trade war could significantly impact Alberta’s oil and gas sector, a key driver of the province’s economy. Should economic headwinds intensify, the housing market may experience further volatility in the months ahead.
