Metro Ottawa
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Ottawa home values have been volatile since 2021.

• Ottawa's months of inventory are trending from a seller's market to a balanced market—the most supply since 2018.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Ottawa as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.eigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the state of the Ottawa property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the state of the Ottawa property market?

Ottawa Property Market Overview

Metro Ottawa has a population of roughly 1.1 million and was ranked 90th among the world's 100 best cities.

Ottawa, Canada’s capital, offers a unique blend of historical charm, economic opportunity, and natural beauty, making it an excellent place to live.

• Thriving Job Market: As the political heart of Canada, Ottawa boasts a stable economy driven by government, tech, and healthcare sectors, offering strong employment opportunities.

• High Quality of Life: Ottawa consistently ranks among Canada’s most livable cities, known for its safety, cleanliness, and high standard of living.

• Access to Nature: Unlike other major cities, Ottawa blends urban convenience with outdoor recreation. The Rideau Canal, Gatineau Park, and numerous trails offer year-round activities from cycling to skiing.

• Education Hub: Home to top institutions like the University of Ottawa and Carleton University, Ottawa is a great city for students and lifelong learners.

• Rich Culture & History: As the capital, Ottawa is packed with museums, national landmarks, and cultural festivals, including Winterlude and Canada Day celebrations.

• Bilingual & Diverse: Ottawa’s mix of English and French speakers, along with a growing multicultural community, creates a dynamic and welcoming atmosphere.

• Efficient Transportation: With an expanding LRT system and bike-friendly infrastructure, Ottawa makes commuting and exploring the city convenient.

Overall, Ottawa offers the perfect balance of career opportunities, a strong community feel, and access to nature, making it an ideal place to live for families, professionals, and students alike.

Ottawa’s real estate market is experiencing a shift as inventory levels rise across all property types. The detached home and townhouse markets remain seller-friendly, but buyers are gaining ground as inventory climbs.

Months of inventory for detached homes increased from 2.7 to 4.9 year-over-year—an 81% surge—while townhouse inventory rose by 79%, from 1.9 to 3.4 months.

Meanwhile, the condo apartment segment has transitioned into a balanced market, where buyers and sellers hold equal negotiating power, as inventory jumped 96% to 5.3 months.

This growing supply could signal further changes ahead in Ottawa’s housing landscape.

Ottawa Detached House Prices

Since peaking in the spring of 2022, housing demand has collapsed. While prices initially rebounded due to constrained supply, a steady rise in inventory in recent months suggests the market may shift once again.

We believe politicians are implementing policies to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with price growth of 1 to 3% annually – in line with income growth.

Demand (i.e., purchases) in Ottawa is low. Many people want to buy a home, but affordability is so poor that would-be buyers have been sidelined.

New homebuyers can’t afford to get on the first step of the homeownership ladder, and households who want to climb the next rung (i.e., upgrade to a larger home) can’t qualify for a new mortgage at the current rates.

Meanwhile, the total active listings are trending upward. They are at their highest level in three years.

Ottawa-Gatineau New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes are dropping. Some homeowners in new developments who bought pre-sales in 2022 might find they will have paid much more than their new neighbours. Based on economic fundamentals, this trend is likely to continue.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

Even though the market is softening, construction remains near record levels.

Market Risk

Mortgage Sandbox Analysis indicates Ottawa is at moderate risk of a significant market correction.

Metro Ottawa Condo Apartment Prices

After breaking records during the pandemic, Metro Ottawa apartment values are flat. Compared to other Canadian cities, an Ottawa condo is still relatively affordable.

The benchmark price has skyrocketed. However, the median apartment price is flat.

Purchases are much lower than in most of the previous three years.

With more people working from home, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Ottawa Townhouse Prices

Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers

Ottawa house prices have become much less affordable. A homebuyer household earning $84,000 (the median Metro Ottawa-Gatineau household before-tax income) can get a $290,000 mortgage. If they were to save a $73,000 down payment, they could only buy a home valued at $365,000. The Median condo apartment price is over $440,000, so for them to buy a typical condo apartment, a household needs an inheritance or a very generous gift from family. For most people, that is not possible.

What about the rest of Canada?

Read the Toronto Forecast, Montreal Forecast and the Vancouver Forecast.

2. Where are Ottawa home prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many risks in real estate can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.

Do you want to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• C1 Central 1 Ontario Outlook

3. Is this a good time to sell an Ottawa property?

From a seller’s perspective, more changes in the market influence prices downward, so this year may be a better time to sell than in two years.

The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.

4. Is this a good time to buy?

Prices have been falling, and supply is high, so prices could fall further. Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

These factors would lead buyers to conclude that later in 2025 or 2026 will be a better time to buy than now.

It's almost impossible to time the market perfectly. However, if you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, the risks of buying now are lower than a year ago.

If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Housing market faces “uncertainty” amid economic and geopolitical shifts: CMHC (REM | Feb 10)

• Tariff threat, recession fears will slow Toronto’s real estate market, experts say (The Toronto Star | Feb 06)

• Toronto home sales expected to rise 12% this year, but board says January saw drop (CBC | Feb 06)

• Buyers’ market: Toronto-area January home sales down nearly 8 per cent year-over-year as prices creep up (The Toronto Star | Feb 05)

• How a trade war and U.S. tariffs could hit Canada’s housing market (Global News | Jan 29)

• Toronto's condo rental market spiked in 2024, data shows (RENX | Jan 22)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

• Toronto new condo sales fall to 28-year low as investors retreat (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 16)

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